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TempoCampo System forecasts a comfortable crop from a climatic point of view

The forecast for February is for heavy rain throughout Central Brazil, and below average rain in the extreme south and interior of the northeast.

In March, below average rainfall in the South of the country, and a better condition in the Southeast, Midwest and throughout the North, with above average rainfall.

For the coordinator of the TempoCampo System – LEB/Esalq/USP, Fabio Marin, “this marks the end of a very good summer for us. We started October with a lot of rain, in November we had a drought, mainly in the Center-South region of the country, which reduced the volume of rain and held back the development of sugarcane fields, but December, January, the first half of February and maybe the month of March, with an interesting rainfall condition, indicating that we are heading for a very comfortable harvest from the climatic point of view", he clarified.

In relation to the last quarter, Marin remembers that it was a period marked by great intensity of rains. “To give you an idea, in Piracicaba – SP, we had the fourth rainiest January in the entire historical series, starting in 1917. The entire North region was marked by intense rainfall, exceeding 400 millimeters. We have a very promising crop because of these rains,” he said.

According to the forecasts presented by the expert, in the second half of February, a reduction in the volume of rain is expected, which should favor the soybean harvest in the Central region of Brazil and the sowing of second-crop corn, which were delayed due to the excessive rainfall in these regions. For the Central and West region of Bahia, Minas Gerais and also part of Goiás, the forecast is for below average rainfall. In the north of the country, the tendency is for rainfall to remain above average.

For the month of April, the expectation is that the conditions point to a reversal of the picture, with below average rainfall, for the entire Central region of Brazil and also for the South. In the North region, everything indicates a lot of rain, and the Northeast region with above average rain.

According to Marin, “these conditions reflect a transition from La Niña to neutrality. The temperature of the Pacific is rising and this impacts the climate in our country, especially in the South and North, which explains this dry condition that Rio Grande do Sul has been going through for more than three years, and the conditions of excess rain in the North/Northeast region, which should end, as we are leaving La Niña and moving towards neutrality, which should also last a short time, due to the El Niño that begins to emerge in May, bringing a tendency for rainfall to the region South of the country and drought to the North/Northeast”, he explained.

The Central region, both Southeast and Midwest, is going through this transition period, which makes it difficult to make a more accurate forecast for the coming months. “You can't nail what will happen. Some years we have drought, some years a more rainy condition”, concludes Marin.



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