top of page

Sugarcane: Crops revised down mill in Brazil to 650mt in 2024/25 season




SAFRAS & Mercado released the second adjustment to the estimate for the volume to be processed of sugar cane in the 2024/25 season. It was the second negative review for crushing volume in the upcoming season starting in April this year. The first estimate made in December 2023 indicated a total volume of 670 million tons of sugarcane in the Center-South. The first adjustment to this estimate was made in January 2024, cutting the initial volume by 10 million tons [-1.49%], going from 670 to 660 million tons of sugarcane. Now in February, SAFRAS is making another cut in the range of 10 million tons, reducing the amount from 660 to 650 million tons of sugarcane to be processed in the sugarcane fields of the Center-South.

According to SAFRAS & Mercado consultant, Maurício Muruci, this adjustment occurs due to the weak rains in the region's sugarcane fields, which have been between 13% and 17% below the average since December 2023, lasting into January 2024 and now, according to the most up-to-date climate maps, for February 2024. Since the initial estimate, the two cuts have already accumulated 20 million tons of sugarcane, a drop of 2.99%.

According to SAFRAS & Mercado consultant, Maurício Muruci, this adjustment occurs due to the weak rains in the region's sugarcane fields, which have been between 13% and 17% below the average since December 2023, lasting into January 2024 and now, according to the most up-to-date climate maps, for February 2024. Since the initial estimate, the two cuts have already accumulated 20 million tons of sugarcane, a drop of 2.99%.

For Muruci, even so, the final volumes of the 2024/25 season should be well aligned with what we will see at the end of the 2023/24 season, which should also have a final volume of sugarcane processed in the Center-South of 650 million tons. "Despite the sharp cut in sugarcane volume, sugar production is expected to see moderate gains compared to the previous harvest, of 0.47%", he comments. High prices on the international market and the high volume of prior fixing of the future harvest will keep mills focused on producing the commodity to fulfill export contracts, assesses the consultant.

"The negative adjustment will come due to the production of hydrated and anhydrous ethanol, with respective drops of 1.18% and 2.54%. Ethanol production will have its supply reduced due to high off-season stocks that will not be able to be disposed of before the beginning of the next season, leading plants to lower negotiation prices in the physical market so that hydrous can gain market share", he assesses.


Comments


bottom of page